2016 Oscars - What will win and what should win?

The 88th edition of the annual Academy Awards have quickly snuck up on us, leaving the anticipated results just a day away. While most of us spend the other 11 months of the year denouncing the importance of awards and declaring ourselves as free spirits able of forming our own perceptions on film, its undeniable that the Oscar hype will inevitably suck you back in to become more invested than is necessary or sensible.

And with that in mind, I've decided to make a list of my predictions of who will triumph at the ceremony tonight and my picks for who should win - albeit in the categories I feel I can actively make a judgement on. Let us begin!

Best Picture

• The Big Short
• Bridge of Spies
• Brooklyn
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Room
• Spotlight

Will win - In one of the strongest Best Picture fields in years, three films appear to be potential winners: The Big Short, The Revenant and Spotlight. All three have won top prizes at the WGAs, the DGAs and SAGs respectively. The tide appears to be leaning towards The Revenant, but I'm going to opt for Spotlight, simply for its important social message. However, I wouldn't be at all surprised if The Revenant won - it might be wistful thinking to think it won't to be honest.

Should win - Ultimately, the film that will be remembered from this list in years to come is Mad Max: Fury Road, an awe-inspiring masterpiece of an action film that was a surprise to see on the list at all, thanks to the Academy's tendency to ignore summer blockbusters. The fact that it was illustrates the impact it has already made. Frankly, I'd be happy to see most of these win, its a good year for film. But Fury Road rides supreme.

Snubbed? - The greatly affecting and gorgeous Carol is an obvious choice for the snub, but it truly deserved a nomination here, as did Inside Out, one of Pixar's best works yet and easily one of the year's best films.

Best Director

• Adam McKay - The Big Short
• George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
• Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
• Lenny Abrahamson - Room
• Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

Will win - The momentum is firmly in favour of Alejandro G. Iñárritu at the end of the race, whose likely to become the first director to win 2 consecutive Director awards in 65 years. The acclaimed product that comes from such arduous production is likely to be the story the Academy looks to reward.

Should win - This one isn't even in question. It's George Miller. An iconic director who came out of the blue to deliver one of the most impressive films I've ever seen on the big screen, truly deserves to be rewarded for his astounding work. There's a small chance, but the sad likelihood is that he'll be passed over for the brutal and unconventional content of the film itself.

Snubbed? - Ryan Coogler's makes a true heart-stopping spectable out of the boxing matches in Creed but also nails the smaller moments, creating a truly great Rocky film that should have earned him a nomination. 

Best Actor

• Bryan Cranston - Trumbo 
• Matt Damon - The Martian
• Leonardo DiCaprio - The Revenant
• Michael Fassbender - Steve Jobs
• Eddie Redmayne - The Danish Girl

Will win - This one is the biggest lock of the year as there is absolutely no doubt that Leonardo DiCaprio will be rewarded for his performance in The Revenant. The man went through hell and back on the production of this film, acting as hard as he could in frost-bite level temperatures to get that Oscar. Well DiCaprio, your win is the surest thing this year, so you may rest easy.

Should win - While DiCaprio's work is technically impressive, Hugh Glass barely registers as a character enough for me to seriously consider his performance the best of the year. I'm more inclined to plump for Matt Damon's crowd-pleasing performance in The Martian but most of all, Michael Fassbender in the underlooked Steve Jobs. Fassbender is magnetic, developing Jobs with depth and dimension that you both hate and somewhat annoyingly, root for.

Snubbed? - Jacob Tremblay is as good as Brie Larson in Room, which is saying a lot and proving that he was truly robbed a nomination in this line-up and even, a win. Also deserving was Michael B. Jordan who is as important as Coogler in the success of Creed, giving a strong and asserting lead performance that proves him worthy of reviving the Rocky franchise.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett - Carol
• Brie Larson - Room
• Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
• Charlotte Rampling - 45 Years
• Saoirse Ronan -  Brooklyn 

Will win - Whilst not quite the lock DiCaprio is - due to the incredibly strong Actress field this year, packed with career defining performances - Brie Larson is a fairly sure bet for the Actress prize, for her work in the tragic yet uplifting Room. She's won almost every other prize leading up to the Oscars and the only doubt of her winning comes from how good most of the other ladies are.

Should win - This one is tough. Cate Blanchett, Saoirse Ronan and Charlotte Rampling are all utterly magnificent in their films and genuinely deserve recognition as well (Lawrence is ok.) I'd be happy to see any of them take the award. However, ultimately my pick lies with the favourite, Brie Larson whose performance in Room is so astoundingly good it reduced me to tears multiple times throughout the film. Its a true breakout performance that should, and will receive the top award.

Snubbed? - Emily Blunt is one of Sicario's strongest assets, turning in some of the best work in her career that has gone sadly unrecognised. But the true snub comes in Charlize Theron's soon to be iconic Furiosa in Mad Max: Fury Road. She anchors and steals the film, making Furiosa into one of the all time great action heroines. 

Best Supporting Actor

• Christian Bale - The Big Short
• Tom Hardy - The Revenant
• Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
• Mark Rylance - Bridge of Spies
• Sylvester Stallone - Creed

Will win - This year's 'lifetime achievement' Oscar looks to be going to Sylvester Stallone for his strong and understated performance as the iconic Rocky Balboa in Creed, whose momentum has steadily grown over the race. While it may be driven by sentiment for the actor, Stallone is far better in the film than he ought to be and its hard to begrudge him a win for it.

Should win - Ruffalo, Bale and Hardy give flashier performances in their respective films, but my true allegiance for this one lies with Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies. His performance is a masterclass in subtlety and his character is a true highlight in the somewhat underrated Spielberg film. 

Snubbed? - It didn't strike me until someone pointed it out on Twitter during the BAFTAs, but Richard Kind really deserves a nomination for his excellent voice work in Inside Out. Kind's voice makes Bing-Bong is such a delightful, funny and likeable character drenched in such pathos and warmth that makes his ultimate fate truly heartbreaking. Also, Oscar Isaac's unsettling and charismatic villain in Ex_Machina is a standout that I'd have loved to have seen recognised. Oh wait, and Benicio del Toro for Sicario. Damn this category is tougher than I thought. 

Best Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Jason Leigh - The Hateful Eight
• Rooney Mara - Carol
• Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
• Alicia Vikander - The Danish Girl
• Kate Winslet - Steve Jobs

Will win - The tide appears to be in favour of Alicia Vikander who made a breakthrough in 2015, appearing in 12 different films. This award goes for her work in the dubious and misguided The Danish Girl, but I'll just pretend its for her gripping performance in Ex_Machina instead.

Should win - Jennifer Jason Leigh is delightfully visceral and vulgar in The Hateful Eight, truly delivering a scene-stealing performance. But, Rooney Mara is simply magnificent in Carol and category fraud be damned, she truly deserves this win.

Snubbed? - As said before, Alicia Vikander really should have been nominated for Ex_Machina instead, but a more unusual snub could be Tilda Swinton who is deliciously funny and catty as Amy's boss in the summer comedy Trainwreck. Any award for Swinton is one well deserved.

Best Original Screenplay

• Bridge of Spies – Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, and Joel Coen
• Ex Machina – Alex Garland
• Inside Out – Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie del Carmen
• Spotlight – Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer
• Straight Outta Compton – Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge, and Alan Wenkus

Will win - Spotlight won at the WGAs and looks to be a more traditional favourite against an animated comedy, a sci-fi thriller and a rap biopic. While is not to undermine its strength as a screenplay that remains remarkably withdrawn, gripping and respectful to the victims of the terrible events the Spotlight news team worked to expose. 

Should win - It's hard to begrudge Spotlight this win, but Inside Out or Ex_Machina would be equally deserving of the win for creating original, thrilling and heart-wrenching screenplays that represent the peaks of their genre.

Snubbed? - The Hateful Eight juggles a number of different genre elements and does it with genuine aplomb, always staying engaging and tense. It could be considered a little long, but I think it pulls it off. But honestly, this is a pretty strong category - Compton aside, which I didn't catch - and nothing truly stands out as a snub.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Big Short – Adam McKay and Charles Randolph from The Big Short by Michael Lewis
• Brooklyn – Nick Hornby from Brooklyn by Colm Tóibín
• Carol – Phyllis Nagy from The Price of Salt by Patricia Highsmith
• The Martian – Drew Goddard from The Martian by Andy Weir
• Room – Emma Donoghue from Room by Emma Donoghue

Will win - Its hard to see anything but The Big Short winning here, after its WGA win and growing momentum. There's also the fact that its near-miss of 'Best Picture' means that this is likely where the Academy will reward the film.

Should win - Donoghue and Hornby adapt Room and Brooklyn with great faith and make them excellent as properties independent of their novels. But Carol is the screenplay I believe deserves to triumph, with a heartfelt and beautiful adaptation of Highsmith's classic novel.

Snubbed? - Honestly, I'm drawing a blank. There were other films with adapted screenplays that were good or okay, but these do seem like the best five - at least that I'm aware of.

Best Animated Feature

• Anomalisa
• Boy and the World
• Inside Out
• Shaun the Sheep Movie
• When Marnie Was There

Will win - This one's pretty much a lock too - Inside Out is a surefire winner. Pixar's stunning return to form, deserving of a 'Best Picture' nomination (as earlier asserted).

Should win - With such a varied list of excellent animated films, its tough to single a winner out. Anomalisa comes close, but ultimately I'll punt for the favourite, Inside Out, one of my personal favourites of last year that deserves all the love it can get.

Snubbed? - Really this list is pretty much perfect. A great mix of mainstream, indie and foreign animation that shows the medium at its best. One could make a case for The Peanuts Movie - a charming revival of the classic comic strip and TV specials - but I think this list is just right. 

Best Cinematography

• Carol – Ed Lachman
• The Hateful Eight – Robert Richardson
• Mad Max: Fury Road – John Seale
• The Revenant – Emmanuel Lubezki
• Sicario – Roger Deakins

Will win - Emmanuel Lubezki looks set to win his third Oscar in a row, for his stunning work on The Revenant, by far the film's strongest asset. Its truly a beauty to watch in that respect and won't be undeserved.

Should win - My instinct is to go for someone who hasn't already won. Roger Deakins' still goes without a win and probably will again for uniformly fantastic work on Sicario, whilst John Seale plays a big role in the spectacular visuals of Mad Max: Fury Road. But ultimately, its Ed Lachman's stunning, grainy 16mm cinematography on Carol that gets my vote. It creates such a warm atmosphere and setting that is pivotal to the film's beauty.

Snubbed? - Honestly, this is a great field as well. Nothing else I've seen this year quite matches the work on these five films, though I've heard great things about the innovative cinematography on Tangerine, an indie film shot with iPhones.

Best Film Editing

• The Big Short – Hank Corwin
• Mad Max: Fury Road – Margaret Sixel
• The Revenant – Stephen Mirrione
• Spotlight – Tom McArdle
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens – Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey

Will win - The Big Short's snappy editing may seem like a more conventional pick for the win, but Margaret Sixel's fantastic work on Mad Max: Fury Road has won almost every other editing award its been nominated for, including the BAFTA, hopefully suggesting she should ride triumph on the 'Fury Road' - or the red carpet -- at the Oscars.

Should win - Much as I adore Star Wars and consider its editing a strength - Mad Max: Fury Road has this shit owned. Sixel's work expertly and seamlessly crosscuts between different locations and creates always coherent but utterly thrilling action sequences that contribute greatly towards the film's success.

And a round-up on the other awards I have seen too little of or am not particularly knowledgeable about:

• Mad Max: Fury Road should and will sweep much of the other technical awards, such as Production Design, Visual Effects (though Ex_Machina would be equally if not more deserving) and Sound Mixing (though The Revenant may put up an undeserved fight).
• Sound Editing is a hard one. I'll take a punt and say this is where Star Wars: The Force Awakens may be recognized since there must have been a lot of new sounds developed. Yet, I wouldn't count out The Revenant or Fury Road here either. Maybe someone more educated will know.
• Costume Design is a tougher one, as the gorgeous period dressing on The Danish Girl and Carol (my personal pick) and lush dresses in Cinderella seem like more conventional picks. Yet Mad Max: Fury Road cleaned up here at the BAFTAs and so I wouldn't be surprised to see it do the same at the Oscars.
• Make-Up and Hairstyling will probably go to The Revenant and deservedly so mostly, though my love for Fury Road knows no bounds.
• Best Original Score looks to be heading Ennio Morricone's way for his work on The Hateful Eight, a fairly deserved win - though I would punt for Carter Burwell's Carol score.
• Best Original Song will go to Lady Gaga's "Til it Happens to You" on star power alone, though deservedly in this case (not so much that Golden Globe for American Horror Story).
• Best Foreign Language Film appears to be dominated by the buzz for Son of Saul, which I would be surprised to see lose out.
• Best Animated Short Film should and hopefully will go to World of Tomorrow, Don Hertzfeldt's masterpiece of a short film. 
• Best Documentary Feature looks locked to go to Amy, the tremendously moving biopic of the late Amy Winehouse, though I've heard The Look of Silence is the better documentary.
• As for the two remaining categories - Best Live Action Short Film and Best Documentary - Short Subject - I have no idea and shouldn't bother guessing.

Well I hope you enjoyed this long, long prediction post, and let me know your own thoughts on the Oscars below. If you intend to, enjoy the ceremony!